COP28 – Why it matters and what to expect

In November 2023, climate policy makers, scientists, civil society, journalists and the business sector all gather for two weeks of interaction on climate. This time in Dubai, UAE. Do COP meetings still matter? What can we expect from COP28? Andreas Gyllenhammar, Chief Sustainability Officer at Sweco, dives into the expectations and analyses the setting of this year’s UN Climate Conference, COP28.

It’s time, again

A year has passed since the last global climate summit. At COP27 in Sharm el Sheik, Egypt, we saw the rapid rise of the third climate negotiation perspective, how to tackle the issue of climate losses and damages. You could argue that this is a sign of failure for climate negotiations, since the other two, emissions mitigation and climate adaptation, obviously not have been sufficient to avoid the impacts of climate change. It also shows that the global climate agenda now has broadened to its full width which might explain why the interest in this years’ COP seems to break all previous records. I have seen estimates of between 70,000 to 90,000 delegates expected to arrive in Dubai and enter the blue (negotiation) zone for COP28. The COP has over the years developed into an enormous gathering for the continuously diversifying group of climate stakeholders. It sure is true what the IPCC has stated – everyone’s affected, and everyone can contribute to the solutions.

A brief COP throwback

Looking back to 1995, when it all started with COP1 in Berlin, the agenda was not less complex, but thinner. It was mainly about being informed by science and trying to agree on reducing carbon emissions. The COP (Conference of the Parties) has gathered the signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to a yearly conference since 1995. The treaty was signed in 1992 at the UN Earth Summit in Rio and the first significant output of the COP was the Kyoto protocol (at COP3) that set out the first carbon emission reduction targets for the signatories. Other significant COPs include the 2009 COP15 in Copenhagen and COP21 in Paris in 2015 which produced the landmark Paris Agreement that to date is the main global climate agreement in operation. All COPs aim to synthesize the outcome of the negotiations into an agreement/accord/agenda/whatever and this year will not be an exception. There is of course a plan and the structure might be there, but the exact ambition level, details and wording remains to be negotiated.

Who will attend?

Looking at last year’s numbers, the participants were: negotiation delegations (21,500), observers (12,000) and media (2,200). Of the observers, 40% were environmental organisations, 25% from research and 15% from business and industry. This year, all groups are expected to increase their presence. It is still not official, how many accreditations the organisers have approved.

A flood of reports

One of the more exciting aspects of a COP, for me as an analyst, is that the months before the meeting are filled with interesting report releases. These all form a basis for the negotiations, including state of science, climate transition, emissions development and analysis of climate finance.

The following reports are among the most interesting this year.

The Net Zero Roadmap by IEA, showing that emissions are still increasing but are set to peak this decade. The solutions include ramping up renewables, improving energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions and increasing electrification with technologies available today deliver more than 80% of the emissions reductions needed by 2030.

World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023, by IRENA which further iterates that tripling investment in renewables and doubling down on energy efficiency would be the best way forward.

The UNEP Production Gap Report 2023 that found that governments plan to produce 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report showing that progress has been made since the Paris Agreement but predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must fall by 28% for the 2°C pathway and 42% for the 1.5°C pathway.

How will it end?

There is only one answer to that, at the moment. We don’t know yet. The signs are mixed. Progress will be made, and it won’t be enough, is a safe guess. Looking at the COPs individually this has always been the case, with a few exceptions with the landmark COP in Paris being the most prominent one. My analysis is that the COPs generate progress if you look at them over a longer time period. We still have no alternative, no better and no more inclusive gathering of nations than the platform currently provided by the UN in form of the COPs to advance the climate agenda on scale. The question is, will it manage to handle more and more complexity and size for each year or will the discussion on reforming the COP format and setup gain momentum and result in a more structural reformation on the process. I doubt it, but I think the need for it increases with every year. In the end, we are not the ones setting the time frame here, that is done by the atmosphere, the oceans and the ecosystems. And they keep telling us to speed up. And to scale up.

To be continued. Stay tuned on LinkedIn.

In the following days, I will look more deeply into some of the interesting questions on the table for this COP and the negotiation positions by nations and groups. I will also report on release of initiatives and analyse their potential significance and impact. You will get insights from interesting side events or conversations taking place in the blue zone and of course, reflections on the progress of the COP during the two weeks.

Follow Andreas on LinkedIn and stay tuned for the latest updates.