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Sweco takes action hashtag placed on top of COP26 Un Climate Change Conference logo

Published: November 11, 2021

Getting closer to target

Andreas Gyllenhammar, Chief Sustainability Officer at Sweco

Andreas Gyllenhammar, Chief Sustainability Officer

The first draft of the “Glasgow Agreement” should have been sent out on Tuesday, by midnight. However, a full night’s work was required before the draft was released and at 6AM on Wednesday we had access to two texts that are expected to serve as cohesive documents. They bare the designations CP.26 and CMA.3 but we should expect slightly better naming before the weekend.

CMA.3 covers the countries’ enhanced ambitions as part of the Paris Agreement (the so-called ratchet mechanism). This text seems to be somewhat loose at the edges in regard to financing, climate adaptation and loss and damage. One way to assess progress is to take a closer look at the proportion of text that still contains alternative writing in square brackets. These will require further consultations with the ministers.

What startles the most are the text sections where countries are demanded to accelerate the phasing out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels. This has been strongly opposed by Russia, Australia and Saudi Arabia but seems to have survived this draft.

On Tuesday, IEA presented an updated scenario showing that holding the rise in global temperatures to 1.8 degrees Celsius is achievable with all the new initiatives presented during the first week of the Glasgow summit. The established Climate Action Tracker estimates that the world is heading for 2.4 degrees Celsius warming (although in a really optimistic scenario 1.8 degrees Celsius is calculated). An important insight is also about the fact that the countries’ net-zero goals are often not backed up by credible plans. Really no wonder, because they are so new and I recognize the situation from the business world. The goals come first, then the analysis of how to reach them. Should you watch a press conference broadcast during COP26, I recommend Climate Action Trackers presentation of this analysis.

Overall, the texts are quite weak and it is noted in the phrasings that the money on the table will not be enough for climate adaptation for the most vulnerable countries. While struggling to meet the promised $100 billion, the African Group of Nations has come up with new demands of $700 billion that must be on the table by 2025. Given how long it has taken to push forward the $100 billion, they are right to start demanding more financing already now.

An interesting observation is that the new texts really emphasise the 1.5-degree target without concrete actions to achieve it. Well, the meeting is not over and we can count on negotiations around the clock and large amounts of Irn Brew to reach the target. Alok Sharma, COP president, still expects a finished agreement on Friday night, but more and more people are smiling at that goal here in the COP corridors…

Andres Gyllenhammar
Chief Sustainability Officer Sweco

Published: December 8, 2021

Key takeaways from the COP26 negotiations

The COP26 negotiations in Glasgow, Scotland, brought together leaders, businesses, civil society and organisations from all over the world. And as the dust has settled we wanted to bring together Sweco’s President and CEO Åsa Bergman and Sweco’s Chief Sustainability Officer Andreas Gyllenhammar to discuss the key takeaways from the negotiations.

Watch Åsa Bergman’s President and CEO statement

Sweco takes action hashtag placed on top of COP26 Un Climate Change Conference logo

Published: November 29, 2021

Key outcomes and final insights from COP26

Andreas Gyllenhammar, Chief Sustainability Officer, Sweco

Andreas Gyllenhammar, Chief Sustainability Officer

Now that the dust begins to settle, after two intense weeks at the Glasgow Climate summit, it is time to summarise the key outcomes and to touch upon some final insights. The Glasgow Climate Pact is signed but there’s are a lot more to it than the words on the paper.

I have been taking an active part in the negotiation process as an observer in the Business and Industry NGO group. We have followed the negotiations, contributed with our knowledge in side-events and interacted with other delegates. Sweco’s interest is also in analysing the process, positions and outcome in order to provide us with valuable insights to our clients and for our future strategies.

ACTION ALONG THE PREDICTED LINES?
These were my predictions of the topics that I thought was going to set the agenda in Glasgow: Climate finance, raised ambitions, sector deals, non-state actors action, completion of the Paris rulebook, just transition, climate justice and COP logistics. Let’s decode them and see what happened. And we’ll start with ‘the easy one’.

THE PARIS RULEBOOK
If you google that phrase you will not find a specific document, it is just a term to describe all technical documents that constitutes the output of the CMA (Conference of the Members of the Agreement) part of Glasgow. Although there are outstanding issues, I think we can say that the rulebook is basically settled. Progress was also made on the notorious Article 6 which governs the setup of carbon markets and trading mechanisms. All in all, it translates into a more rapid and transparent implementation of the Paris Agreement than it was expected.

MONEY – DIFFUSE AND DIVERSE, AND MUCH MORE!
Climate finance has become increasingly important over the recent COP negotiations. It can be traced back to the principle of CBDR (common but differentiated responsibility) which in a climate context means that we have agreed that developed nations have caused the bulk of climate impact and have more financial capacity to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. Already at COP15 in 2009, the ‘climate bank’ was started but the funds for it (100 billion USD yearly), although it is increasing, is partly still missing.

In a COP context, this has developed into a matter of trust. In the eyes of the developing nations it translates into: ‘Before that money is on the table, how can we expect you to deliver on other things that you have agree on?’ This year, the fund has collected more money from various stakeholders, still falling short of the 100 billion USD mark. However, in the final document there is a commitment to double the financial goal to 2025. Zooming out, though, this is still peanuts compared to what will be needed for climate adaptation. Financial resources were pouring into the summit from various sources. Many of them through the voluntary commitments made by nations, the private sector and local/regional governments gathering around various issues. These pledges, commitments and alliances have been formed at previous COP meetings but not to the extent as seen in Glasgow. You should take a closer look into, for example:

The Methane Pledge:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59137828

Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use:
https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/

The Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda
https://ukcop26.org/cop26-world-leaders-summit-statement-on-the-breakthrough-agenda/

The Mission Innovation:
http://mission-innovation.net/event/cop26/

The Missions, announced by Ministers from the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Australia, Austria, the Netherlands, and European Commission, will accelerate technologies to facilitate urban transitions, eliminate emissions from industry, enable carbon dioxide removal, and produce renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials.

The Net Zero Carbon Buildings Commitment
https://worldgbc.org/thecommitment

The Green Grids Initiative
https://ukcop26.org/one-sun-declaration-green-grids-initiative-one-sun-one-world-one-grid/

The First Movers Coalition
https://europeansting.com/2021/11/04/cop26-what-is-the-first-movers-coalition/

And of course, the colossal financial power within the GFANZ, aiming to align its 130 trillion USD with the max 1.5°C climate target.
https://assets.bbhub.io/company/sites/63/2021/11/GFANZ-Progress-Report.pdf

It will take more than a week to unfold the details, importance, and climate impact of all these commitments. To me, they represent the biggest trend during the COP meetings in recent years. From being a technical and consensus driven negotiation engine, designed to produce agreements and rules for climate cooperation between nations, the COP meetings have evolved into a meeting place where all stakeholders gather to share, learn, and commit to climate action.

THE AMBITION GAP – WE’RE CLOSING IN
One of the major goals that the UK COP Presidency had was to keep the 1.5°C climate goal alive. It was a bold statement, considering that we are already at 1.1°C warming, compared to pre-industrial temperature levels, and the emissions are not yet clearly on a downward trajectory. However, COP26 kicked off with the high-level segment where world leaders came together and all committed, in an unusual strong language, to the tougher end of the Paris Agreement. The following days, we saw the launch of initiatives (described above) and ramped up targets, most notably India’s pledge to reach net-zero by 2070 and more significantly, to ramp up renewables to 50% to 2030.

All in all, this made it possible to start to feed to climate models to see how far all this would take us. When the Paris Agreement was signed we were heading for close to 4°C. In the run up to Glasgow, we were seeing a possible track towards 2.7°C. Adding in the new commitments and pledges, we might be, in the best of worlds, reaching 1.8°C. There is a lot of ifs and buts to that number, but this clearly shows that the global temperature curve can be bent. By far, the largest IF is that everyone must deliver reductions on all the promised goals and targets. And, as the Climate Action Tracker analysis show, do that very rapidly.

We can expect that there is still work to do on the remaining ambition gap, and Glasgow revised the ratchet mechanism within the Paris Agreement to adjust to the time constraint on lowering emissions. From a previous five-year revision time frame for national ramped up ambitions this will now take place yearly. A wise and smart move to put pressure on national targets. Let’s just not underestimate the complexity in ramping up these national targets. For this to be more than a numbers exercise, it needs to be followed by new national strategies and action.

ENTER – THE IMPLEMENTATION GAP!
During the Glasgow summit, with the ambition gap starting to narrow in towards the Paris Agreement goal, the conversation started to shift towards the next and emerging gap: The Implementation Gap. This is the inevitable next step after setting the Goals. Goals are merely goals and will not lower emissions. The atmosphere only cares about actual emission reductions, not goals. The intermediate between goals and action should be strategies and roadmaps. Without credible plans for how, when and in what order climate action will take us towards the goals will not implement and deploy solutions in an efficient way.

THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS
The discussion around implementation of climate action will influence the coming years of negotiations and will need to be captured in the COP process. Can the following COP negotiations facilitate and regulate the sharing of national climate progress in a transparent way while at the same time be the meeting place for climate action among nations, non-state actors and the very important financial sector, then, I think we are on a good track towards achieving what only a year ago seemed like an impossible task. There are many of us that need to play a constructive and active part of this task, in many dimensions and on various scales. At Sweco, we are looking forward to contributing with our full dedication and capacity.

Andreas Gyllenhammar
Chief Sustainability Officer Sweco

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